Les élevages bovins de la région semi-aride de Sétif face au changement climatique

Abstract

Cattle breeding have an important place in the Setif region. The semi-arid climate of the latter is a handicap to the development of agriculture and livestock. In addition, the region is highly exposed to the effects of climate change. So, the question of adaptation and flexibility of cattle farms to climate change is acutely required. Therefore, this study addresses the issue of climate change as a factor of influence on the efficiency of cattle farms, their sensitivity and their flexibility and the perception of farmers and their responses to the phenomenon. The first result of this work is the demonstration of the diversity of farming systems cattle: six farming systems have been identified by the principal component analysis, performed on 148 farms. The evolution of the local climate was then analyzed. The results confirmed the event of changes with less rain (-90mm), more heat (+ 1 ° C) above the minima (+ 1.25 ° C) and drought until fall. The study of perception among 80 farmers shows that these changes are perceived differently depending on the age and the farming system. The results also reveal the vulnerability of cattle farms to drought. The total food autonomy decreases below 30%, the forage autonomy fell by 11% and that of concentrate don't reached the 5%. Production charges increased by almost 16% and, consequently, the cost price increase by 10% and 8.5% respectively for milk and meat. Milk production turns an average deficit of 1,23DA during droughts. Finally, the study of adaptation strategies, conducted among 30 farmers, helped to discern several adaptive responses to climate change. The most relevant answers are productions diversity, storage of food security and the trend toward beef fattening. The flexibility analysis shows that the diversified livestock are the most flexible deal with climate-related crises. Mixed farms are plastic while suckling farms appear to be elastic because of their autonomy and robustness. However, dairy farms are less flexible and more susceptible to droughts. Finally, farms for fattening are rather rigid.