Analysis of the variability of wheat yields according to some production factors in Setif and Tiaret

Abstract

The context of our work, which aims to analyze the impact of many factors (climate variability, mechanization, government support, agricultural area) on cereal yields in the semi-arid areas of Algeria. Our study find that Mechanization must be adequate with the special cultivation techniques used by the differentiation of technical itineraries. One of the primary objectives of our work are to analyze the impact of climate variability on wheat yields in the Setif and Tiaret regions, which are one of the mains producing regions in Algeria. To do this , an analysis of the correlations between yield, rainfall and temperature was established, analysis of the correlations between yields and the four climatic variables using the pearson correlation test reveals a significant positive correlation between yields and rainfall about 60% and 37% of temperature in setif. Indeed, the Pearson correlation coefficient showed a significant positive correlation of about 62% between rainful and cereal production in Tiaret. To analyze the impact of climate variability on the evolution of wheat yields by 2100, simulations of the MPI model Cordex Africa project considered the most efficient was used. The simulated rainfall was downloaded for two projection periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 and for two different climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The MPI model simulates a reduction in agricultural production of 2% to 36%, which varies depending on the projection period and climate scenario chosen. These results make it possible to anticipate adaptation measures to cope with the consequences of climate change.