Résumé:
The context of our work, which aims to analyze the impact of many factors (climate
variability, mechanization, government support, agricultural area) on cereal yields in the semi-arid
areas of Algeria. Our study find that Mechanization must be adequate with the special cultivation
techniques used by the differentiation of technical itineraries.
One of the primary objectives of our work are to analyze the impact of climate variability on wheat
yields in the Setif and Tiaret regions, which are one of the mains producing regions in Algeria. To
do this , an analysis of the correlations between yield, rainfall and temperature was established,
analysis of the correlations between yields and the four climatic variables using the pearson
correlation test reveals a significant positive correlation between yields and rainfall about 60% and
37% of temperature in setif. Indeed, the Pearson correlation coefficient showed a significant
positive correlation of about 62% between rainful and cereal production in Tiaret. To analyze the
impact of climate variability on the evolution of wheat yields by 2100, simulations of the MPI
model Cordex Africa project considered the most efficient was used. The simulated rainfall was
downloaded for two projection periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 and for two different climate
scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The MPI model simulates a reduction in agricultural production
of 2% to 36%, which varies depending on the projection period and climate scenario chosen. These
results make it possible to anticipate adaptation measures to cope with the consequences of climate
change.
